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Prediction vindicated as York United edge out Valour 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

York United beat Valour 1-0 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 3.16 xG and Valour 1.33 xG, a combined 4.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. York United fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Valour landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 1.21 / defence 0.99 against Valour attack 1.14 / defence 1.39, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it York United 73% | Draw 16% | Valour 12%, with York United to win its most likely call at 73%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 83%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 95% and missed. Over 3.5 was 66% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 62%, Valour 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

York United's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Valour's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, York United arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. York United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Valour (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights