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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Canadian Premier League · Regular Season - 25

Kick-off

Sun 28 Sep 2025

20:00

Venue

York Lions Stadium

Competition

Canadian Premier League

Canada

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

York United Win

73%

York United

1.38

16%

Draw

6.30

12%

Valour

8.61

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

3 – 1

7.9%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 1

7.4%

Home win

4 – 1

6.2%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

3.16

York United xG

Total xG

4.49

1.33

Valour xG

73%
16%
12%
York UnitedDrawValour

1.38

73%

Home win

6.30

16%

Draw

8.61

12%

Away win

Goals Markets

94%

Over 1.5

1.06

6%

Under 1.5

16.67

83%

Over 2.5

1.20

17%

Under 2.5

5.88

66%

Over 3.5

1.52

34%

Under 3.5

2.94

47%

Over 4.5

2.13

53%

Under 4.5

1.89

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

71%

BTTS Yes

1.40

29%

BTTS No

3.50

Clean Sheet

27%

York United

3.77

4%

Valour

23.64

Win to Nil

19%

York United

5.20

0%

Valour

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.1 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1
1 3.5 4.7 3.1 1.4 0.5 0.1
2 5.6 7.4 4.9 2.2 0.7 0.2
3 5.9 7.9 5.2 2.3 0.8 0.2
4 4.7 6.2 4.1 1.8 0.6 0.2
5 3.0 3.9 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 3.163
λ Away (xG) 1.327
Total xG 4.490
League avg home goals 1.882
League avg away goals 1.175
York United attack strength 1.212
York United defence strength 0.994
Valour attack strength 1.137
Valour defence strength 1.386
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 52 / 52