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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as York United edge out Valour 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

York United beat Valour 3-2 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.95 xG and Valour 0.82 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. York United beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Valour outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.90 / defence 0.78 against Valour attack 0.79 / defence 1.44, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it York United 63% | Draw 23% | Valour 14%, with York United to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 58%, Valour 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

York United's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Valour's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, York United arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. York United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valour (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights