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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant York United run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Pacific FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

York United beat Pacific FC 5-1 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.90 xG and Pacific FC 0.94 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. York United beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 1.06 / defence 0.87 against Pacific FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.14, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it York United 58% | Draw 25% | Pacific FC 17%, with York United to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 58%, Pacific FC 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

York United's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Pacific FC's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — York United 1.44 PPG, Pacific FC 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the York United win broke the near-deadlock. York United (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm. Pacific FC (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights