York United 5-1 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates York United at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this York United vs Pacific FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Pacific FC travel to York Lions Stadium to take on York United. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 August 2025, 21:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, York United have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, York United have posted 5W 2D 3L at York Lions Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at York Lions Stadium.
Pacific FC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pacific FC have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
York United are in the better shape of the two on current Canadian Premier League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, York United have won 2, Pacific FC 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Jun 2025, ended 3–1 with York United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
York United trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Pacific FC trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 56% versus Pacific FC 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 58% | Pacific FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.90 xG and Pacific FC 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 1.058 / defence 0.871 | Pacific FC attack 0.839 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.289. Data: 47 York United games / 47 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: York United 58% | Draw 25% | Pacific FC 17%. Fair-value odds: York United 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Pacific FC 5.88. The model has a clear lean to York United (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, York United are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: York United 50% | Pacific FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Aug 2025, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 58% | Draw 25% | Pacific FC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG York United 1.90 / Pacific FC 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 1.058 / def 0.871 | Pacific FC attack 0.839 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: York United (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
York United xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Pacific FC xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Pacific FC kick off?
York United vs Pacific FC kicked off at 21:00 on Sunday 24 August 2025 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Pacific FC?
York United 5 - 1 Pacific FC.
Where is York United vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Pacific FC part of?
York United vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives York United a 58% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both York United and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Pacific FC?
Record (5 meetings): York United 2W | Draws 1 | Pacific FC 2W.
What form are York United and Pacific FC in?
York United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Pacific FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates York United's attack at 1.06x the league average against Pacific FC's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus York United's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
58%
1.72
25%
3.99
17%
6.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
York United xG
Total xG
2.84
0.94
Pacific FC xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
6.01
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
15%
6.70
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
2%
40.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are York United and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for York United and 0.94 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Pacific FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
York United's recent record stands at 19W 12D 17L from 48 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacific FC, meanwhile, have gone 14W 11D 23L across 48 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: York United on 1.44 PPG, Pacific FC on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, York United have managed 12W 5D 6L from 23 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pacific FC's away record stands at 4W 6D 13L across 23 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, York United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
York United are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.00 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
York United have gone 19W 12D 17L in their last 48 games (1.44 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 14W 11D 23L in their last 48 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Pacific FC away?
York United's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.78 PPG; Pacific FC away: 0.78 PPG.
Have York United or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
York United have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 9 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2025, when York United won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
York United's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
York United
4
Draws
2
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 4, Pacific FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did York United and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 September 2026, when York United 3-3 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between York United and Pacific FC?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 56%, Pacific FC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (York United) and 39% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: York United keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Pacific FC in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of York United's recent matches and 44% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York United vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of York United's recent games and 39% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Pacific FC tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant York United run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Pacific FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Pacific FC 5-1 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.90 xG and Pacific FC 0.94 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. York United beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 1.06 / defence 0.87 against Pacific FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.14, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 58% | Draw 25% | Pacific FC 17%, with York United to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 58%, Pacific FC 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Pacific FC's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — York United 1.44 PPG, Pacific FC 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the York United win broke the near-deadlock. York United (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm. Pacific FC (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.