York United 0-4 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates York United at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this York United vs Forge fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
York United host Forge at York Lions Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 10 July 2023 at 00:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, York United stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
York United's home record at York Lions Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Forge have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
York United are in the better shape of the two on current Canadian Premier League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
York United trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Forge trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 45% versus Forge 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 48% | Forge 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.14 xG and Forge 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 0.917 / defence 1.064 | Forge attack 0.757 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.226. Data: 42 York United games / 42 Forge games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: York United 39% | Draw 31% | Forge 31%. Fair-value odds: York United 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Forge 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, York United are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on York United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: York United 60% | Forge 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 10 Jul 2023, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 39% | Draw 31% | Forge 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG York United 1.14 / Forge 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 0.917 / def 1.064 | Forge attack 0.757 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: York United (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
York United xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Forge xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Forge kick off?
York United vs Forge kicked off at 00:30 on Monday 10 July 2023 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Forge?
York United 0 - 4 Forge.
Where is York United vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Forge part of?
York United vs Forge is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives York United a 39% chance of winning, Forge a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both York United and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Forge?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are York United and Forge in?
York United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Forge (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
York United's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Forge's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Forge's attack versus York United's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
39%
2.59
31%
3.28
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
York United xG
Total xG
2.13
0.99
Forge xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
10%
10.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 11.7 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are York United and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for York United and 0.99 for Forge, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, York United have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 15W 9D 18L record — W-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Forge's form line: 20W 9D 13L from 42 games, 1.64 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: York United on 1.29 PPG, Forge on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, York United have posted 1.25 PPG from 20 outings (7W 4D 9L).
On the road, Forge have gone 9W 5D 6L from 20 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
York United are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.48 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Blended
Forge
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Forge in coming into this match?
York United have gone 15W 9D 18L in their last 42 games (1.29 PPG), while Forge have gone 20W 9D 13L in their last 42 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Forge away?
Forge's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.25 PPG; Forge away: 1.60 PPG.
Have York United or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
York United have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Forge in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Forge go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Forge won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
York United's record when hosting Forge specifically: 0W 2D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
York United
3
Draws
7
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Forge?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 0, Forge have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did York United and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when York United 1-3 Forge.
Who has won more matches between York United and Forge?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 45%, Forge 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (York United) and 30% (Forge).
On the defensive side: Forge in 40%; York United have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Forge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of York United's recent matches and 40% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York United vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of York United's recent games and 30% of Forge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Forge tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Forge in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Forge run riot with a 0-4 hammering of York United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat York United 0-4 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.14 xG and Forge 0.99 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. York United fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Forge outscored their 0.99 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.92 / defence 1.06 against Forge attack 0.76 / defence 0.93, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 39% | Draw 31% | Forge 31%, with York United to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Forge win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 48%, Forge 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Forge's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — York United 1.29 PPG, Forge 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Forge win broke the near-deadlock. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Forge (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.