Vancouver FC 1-2 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates York United at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vancouver FC vs York United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vancouver FC and York United meet at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre in Canadian Premier League (matchday 6). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 July 2023 at 22:30 UK time.
Current Form
Vancouver FC's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Vancouver FC's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 2L across their last 5 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from their last 5 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
York United have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, York United have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. York United are 0.70 PPG clear of Vancouver FC over their recent games (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Vancouver FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 12 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
York United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 12 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 20% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vancouver FC 42% versus York United 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vancouver FC 33% | York United 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vancouver FC 1.18 xG and York United 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vancouver FC attack 0.913 / defence 1.451 | York United attack 1.044 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.240. Vancouver FC's defence rating of 1.451 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing York United's projected output up. Data: built from Vancouver FC's last 12 games and York United's last 41.
Result probabilities: Vancouver FC 23% | Draw 24% | York United 53%. Fair-value odds: Vancouver FC 4.31 | Draw 4.25 | York United 1.88. York United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is York United at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on York United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Vancouver FC's last 5 home games and York United's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Vancouver FC 40% (last 5 home games) | York United 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vancouver FC vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 6 | Venue: Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre • Kick-off: Sunday 2 July 2023 at 22:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vancouver FC 23% | Draw 24% | York United 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Vancouver FC 1.18 / York United 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Vancouver FC attack 0.913 / def 1.451 | York United attack 1.044 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.315 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: York United (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Vancouver FC xG
Expected Goals
1.88
York United xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vancouver FC vs York United FAQs
What time does Vancouver FC vs York United kick off?
Vancouver FC vs York United kicked off at 22:30 UK time on Sunday 2 July 2023 at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre.
What was the final score in Vancouver FC vs York United?
Vancouver FC 1 - 2 York United.
Where is Vancouver FC vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre.
What competition is Vancouver FC vs York United part of?
Vancouver FC vs York United is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 6) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Vancouver FC vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Vancouver FC a 23% chance of winning, York United a 53% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vancouver FC vs York United?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Vancouver FC and York United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Vancouver FC vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vancouver FC's attack at 0.91x the league average against York United's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — York United's attack (1.04x) against Vancouver FC's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.88.
These ratings are built from Vancouver FC's last 12 games and York United's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
23%
4.31
24%
4.25
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Vancouver FC xG
Total xG
3.05
1.88
York United xG
4.31
23%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
15%
6.54
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
4%
28.17
16%
6.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vancouver FC vs York United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vancouver FC vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Vancouver FC and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Vancouver FC and 1.88 for York United, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Vancouver FC vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 12 outings, Vancouver FC have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 2W 4D 6L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
York United's form line: 5W 2D 5L from 12 games, 1.42 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L.
Put side by side, York United are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vancouver FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Vancouver FC have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 5 home games (1W 2D 2L).
On the road, York United have gone 2W 1D 2L from their last 5 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Vancouver FC are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 12 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vancouver FC
Blended
York United
Blended
Vancouver FC (Home) vs York United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vancouver FC
Blended
York United
Blended
❓ Vancouver FC vs York United Form FAQs
What form are Vancouver FC and York United in coming into this match?
Vancouver FC have gone 2W 4D 6L in their last 12 games (0.83 PPG), while York United have gone 5W 2D 5L in their last 12 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vancouver FC at home or York United away?
York United's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vancouver FC at home: 1.00 PPG; York United away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Vancouver FC and York United, the earliest from July 2024. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 24 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: York United won York United 4-0 Vancouver FC on 19 Jul 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vancouver FC have gone 2W 2D 2L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against York United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Vancouver FC
2
Draws
6
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Vancouver FC vs York United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and York United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Vancouver FC have won 2, York United have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vancouver FC and York United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 September 2026: Vancouver FC 3-3 York United.
Who has won more matches between Vancouver FC and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
York United's games tend to start slowly — only 20% have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vancouver FC 40%, York United 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Vancouver FC) and 60% (York United).
On the defensive side: Vancouver FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Vancouver FC have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vancouver FC home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vancouver FC vs York United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vancouver FC and York United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Vancouver FC's recent matches and 60% of York United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Vancouver FC and York United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Vancouver FC's recent games and 60% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vancouver FC and York United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Vancouver FC's recent matches and 20% of York United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as York United edge out Vancouver FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Vancouver FC 1-2 at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre, Regular Season - 6, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 1.18 xG and York United 1.88 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.45 against York United attack 1.04 / defence 0.98, drawn from 12/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 23% | Draw 24% | York United 53%, with York United to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 33%, York United 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vancouver FC's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
York United's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, York United arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.83. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.