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Prediction vindicated as Forge edge out York United 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Forge beat York United 1-2 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.10 xG and Forge 1.30 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 1.12 / defence 0.83 against Forge attack 1.27 / defence 0.66, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it York United 30% | Draw 30% | Forge 40%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 60%, Forge 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

York United's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Forge's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.45. That form edge translated into the three points. York United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights