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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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York United and Forge share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 4, as York United and Forge drew 2-2 in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.04 xG and Forge 1.55 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. York United beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.98 / defence 1.04 against Forge attack 1.05 / defence 0.85, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it York United 23% | Draw 30% | Forge 47%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 59%, Forge 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

York United's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Forge's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — York United 1.37 PPG, Forge 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights