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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out York United 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cavalry FC beat York United 1-2 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.30 xG and Cavalry FC 1.39 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 1.07 / defence 1.08 against Cavalry FC attack 0.89 / defence 0.94, drawn from 32/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it York United 33% | Draw 30% | Cavalry FC 37%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 59%, Cavalry FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

York United's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Cavalry FC's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.37. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights