🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

York United and Atlético Ottawa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as York United and Atlético Ottawa drew 2-2 in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.60 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.20 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 1.24 / defence 0.90 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.07 / defence 0.72, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it York United 44% | Draw 29% | Atlético Ottawa 27%, with York United to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 62%, Atlético Ottawa 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

York United's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — York United 1.44 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. York United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights