Vancouver FC 1-3 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vancouver FC at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vancouver FC vs Valour encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Willoughby Community Park Stadium plays host to Vancouver FC versus Valour in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 26 July 2025 at 03:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vancouver FC have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vancouver FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vancouver FC's home record at Willoughby Community Park Stadium: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Valour (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, Valour have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.30 for Vancouver FC, 0.70 for Valour — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Vancouver FC 4W, Valour 2W, 2D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jun 2025, ended 1–3 with Valour winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Vancouver FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Valour goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vancouver FC 52% versus Valour 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vancouver FC 50% | Valour 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vancouver FC 1.59 xG and Valour 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vancouver FC attack 0.700 / defence 1.108 | Valour attack 0.927 / defence 1.448. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.265. Vancouver FC's attack strength of 0.700 is below the league average — the 1.59 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Valour bring a strong defensive rating of 1.448 — this is suppressing Vancouver FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Vancouver FC games / 42 Valour games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vancouver FC 42% | Draw 29% | Valour 29%. Fair-value odds: Vancouver FC 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Valour 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vancouver FC at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vancouver FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vancouver FC 50% | Valour 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vancouver FC vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Willoughby Community Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Jul 2025, 03:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vancouver FC 42% | Draw 29% | Valour 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Vancouver FC 1.59 / Valour 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Vancouver FC attack 0.700 / def 1.108 | Valour attack 0.927 / def 1.448 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Vancouver FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Vancouver FC xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Valour xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vancouver FC vs Valour kick off?
Vancouver FC vs Valour kicked off at 03:00 on Saturday 26 July 2025 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Vancouver FC vs Valour?
Vancouver FC 1 - 3 Valour.
Where is Vancouver FC vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at Willoughby Community Park Stadium.
What competition is Vancouver FC vs Valour part of?
Vancouver FC vs Valour is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Vancouver FC vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives Vancouver FC a 42% chance of winning, Valour a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Vancouver FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vancouver FC vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Vancouver FC and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will Vancouver FC vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Valour?
Record (8 meetings): Vancouver FC 4W | Draws 2 | Valour 2W.
What form are Vancouver FC and Valour in?
Vancouver FC (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Valour (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vancouver FC's attack at 0.70x the league average against Valour's defence at 1.45x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valour's attack (0.93x) against Vancouver FC's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vancouver FC Win
42%
2.40
29%
3.39
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Vancouver FC xG
Total xG
2.89
1.30
Valour xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
6%
17.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vancouver FC vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Vancouver FC and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Vancouver FC and 1.30 for Valour, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Vancouver FC vs Valour?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vancouver FC come into this having played 42 games, going 7W 14D 21L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. The sample for Vancouver FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valour sit at 0.86 PPG from 42 outings (9W 9D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for Vancouver FC against 0.86 for Valour. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Vancouver FC's home form reads 3W 7D 10L across 20 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Valour have taken 0.60 points per game from 20 outings (2W 6D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Vancouver FC are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.05 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valour in 62%.
Last 42 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vancouver FC
Blended
Valour
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vancouver FC and Valour in coming into this match?
Vancouver FC have gone 7W 14D 21L in their last 42 games (0.83 PPG), while Valour have gone 9W 9D 24L in their last 42 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vancouver FC at home or Valour away?
Vancouver FC's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vancouver FC at home: 0.80 PPG; Valour away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 6 September 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Valour go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vancouver FC won 4-1 on 15 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vancouver FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Vancouver FC
2
Draws
4
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, Vancouver FC have won 4, Valour have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vancouver FC and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2025, when Vancouver FC 2-5 Valour.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vancouver FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vancouver FC 45%, Valour 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Vancouver FC) and 65% (Valour).
On the defensive side: Vancouver FC have failed to score in 45% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vancouver FC home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vancouver FC play Valour?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Vancouver FC's games and 70% of Valour's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vancouver FC vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Vancouver FC's recent games and 65% of Valour's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vancouver FC and Valour tend to score early?
Vancouver FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Valour in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valour cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Vancouver FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valour beat Vancouver FC 1-3 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 1.59 xG and Valour 1.30 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Valour outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.70 / defence 1.11 against Valour attack 0.93 / defence 1.45, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 42% | Draw 29% | Valour 29%, with Vancouver FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Valour win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 50%, Valour 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vancouver FC's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Valour's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vancouver FC 0.83 PPG, Valour 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valour win broke the near-deadlock. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valour (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.