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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC finished level at 2-2 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 1.60 xG and Cavalry FC 1.72 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.38 against Cavalry FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.04, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 33% | Draw 28% | Cavalry FC 38%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 54%, Cavalry FC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vancouver FC's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Cavalry FC's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights