🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Cavalry FC (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Vancouver FC face Cavalry FC.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Cavalry FC make the trip to Willoughby Community Park Stadium to face Vancouver FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 October 2025 at 21:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Vancouver FC have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Vancouver FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Vancouver FC at Willoughby Community Park Stadium this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Cavalry FC (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Cavalry FC away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On a straight form reading, Cavalry FC are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Vancouver FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Cavalry FC in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Cavalry FC hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2025, ended 4–5 with Cavalry FC winning.

It is worth noting that Cavalry FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading & In-Play

Vancouver FC — key trading statistics (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Cavalry FC — key trading statistics (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vancouver FC 60% and Cavalry FC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vancouver FC 54% | Cavalry FC 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Vancouver FC 1.60 xG and Cavalry FC 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vancouver FC attack 0.842 / defence 1.380 | Cavalry FC attack 1.011 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.823 / away 1.235. Data: 55 Vancouver FC games / 55 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Vancouver FC 33% | Draw 28% | Cavalry FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Vancouver FC 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Cavalry FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Cavalry FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.32 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vancouver FC 60% | Cavalry FC 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights