Vancouver FC 0-0 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Vancouver FC at 50%, yet in-form Cavalry FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cavalry FC make the trip to Apple Bowl to face Vancouver FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 16 June 2024 at 22:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vancouver FC have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Vancouver FC at Apple Bowl this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cavalry FC (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cavalry FC away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Cavalry FC are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Vancouver FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Cavalry FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Vancouver FC 0W, Cavalry FC 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 1–3 with Cavalry FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Vancouver FC — key trading statistics (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Cavalry FC — key trading statistics (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vancouver FC 57% versus Cavalry FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vancouver FC 61% | Cavalry FC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vancouver FC 1.69 xG and Cavalry FC 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vancouver FC attack 1.205 / defence 0.920 | Cavalry FC attack 1.000 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.105. Data: 37 Vancouver FC games / 37 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vancouver FC 50% | Draw 31% | Cavalry FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Vancouver FC 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | Cavalry FC 5.26. Vancouver FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vancouver FC as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cavalry FC (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vancouver FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vancouver FC 70% | Cavalry FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Apple Bowl • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jun 2024, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vancouver FC 50% | Draw 31% | Cavalry FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Vancouver FC 1.69 / Cavalry FC 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Vancouver FC attack 1.205 / def 0.920 | Cavalry FC attack 1.000 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Vancouver FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Vancouver FC xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Cavalry FC xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 16 June 2024 at Apple Bowl.
What was the final score in Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC?
Vancouver FC 0 - 0 Cavalry FC.
Where is Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Apple Bowl.
What competition is Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC part of?
Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Vancouver FC a 50% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Vancouver FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC?
Record (1 meetings): Vancouver FC 0W | Draws 0 | Cavalry FC 1W.
What form are Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC in?
Vancouver FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Cavalry FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vancouver FC's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Cavalry FC's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (1.00x) against Vancouver FC's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vancouver FC Win
50%
2.01
31%
3.22
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Vancouver FC xG
Total xG
2.71
1.02
Cavalry FC xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
4%
28.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.5 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Vancouver FC and 1.02 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vancouver FC's recent record stands at 8W 5D 15L from 28 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Cavalry FC, meanwhile, have gone 17W 4D 7L across 28 games — 1.96 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cavalry FC by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vancouver FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Vancouver FC have managed 5W 2D 6L from 13 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cavalry FC's away record stands at 6W 2D 5L across 13 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cavalry FC's season.
Attack vs Defence
Vancouver FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.64 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cavalry FC in 61%.
Last 28 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vancouver FC
Current Season
Cavalry FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Vancouver FC have gone 8W 5D 15L in their last 28 games (1.04 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 17W 4D 7L in their last 28 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vancouver FC at home or Cavalry FC away?
Cavalry FC's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vancouver FC at home: 1.31 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vancouver FC have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Vancouver FC
5
Draws
4
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Vancouver FC have won 1, Cavalry FC have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Vancouver FC 1-0 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vancouver FC 62%, Cavalry FC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Vancouver FC and 54% for Cavalry FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vancouver FC have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vancouver FC home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vancouver FC play Cavalry FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Vancouver FC's games and 62% of Cavalry FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Vancouver FC's matches and 54% of Cavalry FC's.
Do Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Vancouver FC have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vancouver FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC finished level at 0-0 at Apple Bowl, Regular Season - 5, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 1.69 xG and Cavalry FC 1.02 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vancouver FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Cavalry FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 1.21 / defence 0.92 against Cavalry FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.92, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 50% | Draw 31% | Cavalry FC 19%, with Vancouver FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 61%, Cavalry FC 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vancouver FC's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.