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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Valour defy the odds to beat York United 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Valour beat York United 2-1 at Princess Auto Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.20 xG and York United 1.63 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.81 / defence 1.06 against York United attack 0.97 / defence 1.06, drawn from 33/34 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Valour 26% | Draw 29% | York United 45%, with York United to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Valour win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 43%, York United 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valour's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

York United's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, York United arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with Valour winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Valour (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights