Valour 0-1 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valour at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valour vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Princess Auto Stadium plays host to Valour versus York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Monday 12 August 2024 at 01:00 UTC.
Current Form
Valour's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valour at Princess Auto Stadium this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
York United (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
York United's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
York United arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Valour 2W, York United 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jun 2024, ended 1–0 with Valour winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Valour — key trading statistics (45 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
York United — key trading statistics (45 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 51% versus York United 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valour 44% | York United 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 1.37 xG and York United 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.881 / defence 0.988 | York United attack 0.918 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.223. Data: 45 Valour games / 45 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valour 42% | Draw 28% | York United 30%. Fair-value odds: Valour 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | York United 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valour at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form York United (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valour if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Valour 40% | York United 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Princess Auto Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 12 Aug 2024, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 42% | Draw 28% | York United 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Valour 1.37 / York United 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 0.881 / def 0.988 | York United attack 0.918 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Valour (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Valour xG
Expected Goals
1.11
York United xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs York United kick off?
Valour vs York United kicked off at 01:00 on Monday 12 August 2024 at Princess Auto Stadium.
What was the final score in Valour vs York United?
Valour 0 - 1 York United.
Where is Valour vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Princess Auto Stadium.
What competition is Valour vs York United part of?
Valour vs York United is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 42% chance of winning, York United a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Valour the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs York United?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Valour and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and York United?
Record (4 meetings): Valour 2W | Draws 0 | York United 2W.
What form are Valour and York United in?
Valour (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. York United (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Valour's attack at 0.88x the league average against York United's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — York United's attack (0.92x) against Valour's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valour Win
42%
2.38
28%
3.51
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Valour xG
Total xG
2.48
1.11
York United xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
14%
7.22
7%
13.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Valour and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Valour and 1.11 for York United, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valour come into this having played 45 games, going 11W 10D 24L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, York United sit at 1.47 PPG from 45 outings (19W 9D 17L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
York United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Valour — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Valour's home form reads 6W 4D 10L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, York United have taken 1.20 points per game from 20 outings (6W 6D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valour are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.38 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York United in 62%.
Last 45 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Blended
York United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and York United in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 11W 10D 24L in their last 45 games (0.96 PPG), while York United have gone 19W 9D 17L in their last 45 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or York United away?
York United's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 1.10 PPG; York United away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 28 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valour have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against York United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Valour
2
Draws
5
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 3, York United have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valour and York United last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2025, when York United 1-0 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Valour and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valour 45%, York United 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Valour) and 65% (York United).
On the defensive side: Valour have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play York United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Valour's games and 75% of York United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valour vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Valour's recent games and 65% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and York United tend to score early?
Valour have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, York United in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as York United defy the odds to beat Valour 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Valour 0-1 at Princess Auto Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.37 xG and York United 1.11 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Valour fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.88 / defence 0.99 against York United attack 0.92 / defence 0.99, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 42% | Draw 28% | York United 30%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual York United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 44%, York United 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (45 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
York United's trading profile (45 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, York United arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. Valour (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. York United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.