Vancouver FC 1-0 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Canadian Premier League clash, Regular Season - 8 as Vancouver FC welcome Pacific FC to Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 August 2024 at 22:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Vancouver FC have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vancouver FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vancouver FC at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Vancouver FC are significantly better at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pacific FC stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Vancouver FC at 0.70 PPG versus Pacific FC's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Vancouver FC have won 1, Pacific FC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Jun 2024, ended 2–1 with Vancouver FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Vancouver FC in-play tendencies (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vancouver FC 58% versus Pacific FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vancouver FC 62% | Pacific FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vancouver FC 0.96 xG and Pacific FC 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vancouver FC attack 0.732 / defence 1.139 | Pacific FC attack 0.876 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.251. Vancouver FC's attack strength of 0.732 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Vancouver FC games / 44 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vancouver FC 27% | Draw 32% | Pacific FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Vancouver FC 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | Pacific FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pacific FC as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Vancouver FC 50% | Pacific FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vancouver FC 27% | Draw 32% | Pacific FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Vancouver FC 0.96 / Pacific FC 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Vancouver FC attack 0.732 / def 1.139 | Pacific FC attack 0.876 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Vancouver FC xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Pacific FC xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC kick off?
Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre.
What was the final score in Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC?
Vancouver FC 1 - 0 Pacific FC.
Where is Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre.
What competition is Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC part of?
Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Vancouver FC a 27% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Vancouver FC and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Pacific FC?
Record (1 meetings): Vancouver FC 1W | Draws 0 | Pacific FC 0W.
What form are Vancouver FC and Pacific FC in?
Vancouver FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Pacific FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Vancouver FC's attack rating (0.73) and Pacific FC's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus Vancouver FC's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
27%
3.75
32%
3.08
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Vancouver FC xG
Total xG
2.21
1.25
Pacific FC xG
3.75
27%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
8%
13.09
16%
6.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 13.7 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Vancouver FC and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Vancouver FC and 1.25 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vancouver FC's recent record stands at 13W 10D 22L from 45 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Vancouver FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacific FC, meanwhile, have gone 17W 11D 17L across 45 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vancouver FC on 1.09 PPG, Pacific FC on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Vancouver FC have managed 8W 6D 9L from 23 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pacific FC's away record stands at 9W 5D 9L across 23 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Vancouver FC are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.27 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vancouver FC
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vancouver FC and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Vancouver FC have gone 13W 10D 22L in their last 45 games (1.09 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 17W 11D 17L in their last 45 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vancouver FC at home or Pacific FC away?
Pacific FC's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vancouver FC at home: 1.30 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Vancouver FC or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vancouver FC have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vancouver FC and Pacific FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Sep 2024, when Pacific FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vancouver FC's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Vancouver FC
4
Draws
2
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Vancouver FC have won 4, Pacific FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Vancouver FC and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Vancouver FC 1-1 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Vancouver FC and Pacific FC?
Vancouver FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vancouver FC 56%, Pacific FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Vancouver FC) and 56% (Pacific FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pacific FC in 30%; Vancouver FC have failed to score in 35% of games; Pacific FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vancouver FC home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vancouver FC play Pacific FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Vancouver FC's games and 56% of Pacific FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vancouver FC vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Vancouver FC's matches and 56% of Pacific FC's.
Do Vancouver FC and Pacific FC tend to score early?
Vancouver FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vancouver FC defy the odds to beat Pacific FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vancouver FC beat Pacific FC 1-0 at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre, Regular Season - 8, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 0.96 xG and Pacific FC 1.25 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pacific FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.73 / defence 1.14 against Pacific FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.84, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 27% | Draw 32% | Pacific FC 41%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Vancouver FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 62%, Pacific FC 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vancouver FC's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Pacific FC's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vancouver FC 1.09 PPG, Pacific FC 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vancouver FC win broke the near-deadlock. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.