Valour 1-0 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Valour take on Pacific FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Pacific FC travel to Princess Auto Stadium to take on Valour. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 1 October 2024, 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Valour have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Princess Auto Stadium, Valour have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pacific FC — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Valour) versus 0.90 (Pacific FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Pacific FC, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Valour.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2024, ended 3–0 with Valour winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Pacific FC have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Valour in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Pacific FC in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 56% versus Pacific FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valour 44% | Pacific FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 1.10 xG and Pacific FC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.824 / defence 1.031 | Pacific FC attack 0.827 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.134. Data: 52 Valour games / 52 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valour 35% | Draw 37% | Pacific FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Valour 2.86 | Draw 2.70 | Pacific FC 3.57. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Pacific FC lead the H2H ledger, but Valour carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Valour 60% | Pacific FC 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Princess Auto Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Oct 2024, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 35% | Draw 37% | Pacific FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 45% | xG Valour 1.10 / Pacific FC 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 0.824 / def 1.031 | Pacific FC attack 0.827 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Valour xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Pacific FC xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs Pacific FC kick off?
Valour vs Pacific FC kicked off at 01:00 on Tuesday 1 October 2024 at Princess Auto Stadium.
What was the final score in Valour vs Pacific FC?
Valour 1 - 0 Pacific FC.
Where is Valour vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at Princess Auto Stadium.
What competition is Valour vs Pacific FC part of?
Valour vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 35% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 28% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Valour vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Valour and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Pacific FC?
Record (5 meetings): Valour 1W | Draws 0 | Pacific FC 4W.
What form are Valour and Pacific FC in?
Valour (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Pacific FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Valour's attack rating (0.82) and Pacific FC's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus Valour's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.89
37%
2.68
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Valour xG
Total xG
2.06
0.97
Pacific FC xG
2.89
35%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
9%
10.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Valour and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Valour and 0.97 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Valour have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 12W 14D 26L record — L-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacific FC's form line: 19W 13D 20L from 52 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-D. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valour on 0.96 PPG, Pacific FC on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Valour have posted 1.08 PPG from 25 outings (7W 6D 12L).
On the road, Pacific FC have gone 7W 6D 12L from 25 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Valour are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.27 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 12W 14D 26L in their last 52 games (0.96 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 19W 13D 20L in their last 52 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or Pacific FC away?
Valour's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 1.08 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Valour or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valour have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Jul 2023, when Pacific FC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valour's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Valour
2
Draws
5
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 3, Pacific FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valour and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Pacific FC 1-4 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Valour and Pacific FC?
Pacific FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valour 52%, Pacific FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Valour) and 48% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: Valour have failed to score in 32% of games; Pacific FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Valour's recent matches and 48% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valour vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Valour's recent games and 48% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and Pacific FC tend to score early?
Valour have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Valour edge out Pacific FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valour beat Pacific FC 1-0 at Princess Auto Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.10 xG and Pacific FC 0.97 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pacific FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.82 / defence 1.03 against Pacific FC attack 0.83 / defence 0.93, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 35% | Draw 37% | Pacific FC 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Valour win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 44%, Pacific FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Pacific FC's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valour 0.96 PPG, Pacific FC 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valour win broke the near-deadlock. Valour (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.