York United 0-2 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates York United at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this York United vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cavalry FC make the trip to York Lions Stadium to face York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 September 2024 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
York United (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at York Lions Stadium, York United have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — York United are significantly better at York Lions Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Cavalry FC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for York United against 1.80 for Cavalry FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — York United have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Cavalry FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for York United, 1 for Cavalry FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with Cavalry FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
York United — key trading statistics (52 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Cavalry FC — key trading statistics (52 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — York United 60% and Cavalry FC 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 62% | Cavalry FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.16 xG and Cavalry FC 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 1.013 / defence 0.947 | Cavalry FC attack 0.999 / defence 0.750. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.125. Cavalry FC's defence strength of 0.750 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 York United games / 51 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: York United 37% | Draw 31% | Cavalry FC 32%. Fair-value odds: York United 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Cavalry FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is York United at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on York United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: York United 70% | Cavalry FC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 37% | Draw 31% | Cavalry FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG York United 1.16 / Cavalry FC 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 1.013 / def 0.947 | Cavalry FC attack 0.999 / def 0.750 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: York United (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
York United xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Cavalry FC xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Cavalry FC kick off?
York United vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Cavalry FC?
York United 0 - 2 Cavalry FC.
Where is York United vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Cavalry FC part of?
York United vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives York United a 37% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both York United and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Cavalry FC?
Record (2 meetings): York United 1W | Draws 0 | Cavalry FC 1W.
What form are York United and Cavalry FC in?
York United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Cavalry FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about York United vs Cavalry FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates York United's attack at 1.01x the league average against Cavalry FC's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (1.00x) against York United's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
37%
2.70
31%
3.25
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
York United xG
Total xG
2.23
1.06
Cavalry FC xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
13%
7.82
10%
9.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.5 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are York United and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for York United and 1.06 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
York United come into this having played 52 games, going 21W 11D 20L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cavalry FC sit at 1.75 PPG from 52 outings (25W 16D 11L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for York United against 1.75 for Cavalry FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
York United's home form reads 10W 5D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Cavalry FC have taken 1.50 points per game from 24 outings (10W 6D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
York United are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.46 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cavalry FC in 65%.
Last 52 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Blended
Cavalry FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
York United have gone 21W 11D 20L in their last 52 games (1.42 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 25W 16D 11L in their last 52 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Cavalry FC away?
Cavalry FC's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.46 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 11 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 1-5 on 11 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, York United have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
York United
1
Draws
6
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 3, Cavalry FC have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did York United and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 June 2026, when York United 1-5 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between York United and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 54%, Cavalry FC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (York United) and 46% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: York United have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Cavalry FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of York United's games and 62% of Cavalry FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is York United vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of York United's recent games and 46% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cavalry FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over York United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat York United 0-2 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.16 xG and Cavalry FC 1.06 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. York United fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Cavalry FC outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 1.01 / defence 0.95 against Cavalry FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.75, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 37% | Draw 31% | Cavalry FC 32%, with York United to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Cavalry FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 62%, Cavalry FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (52 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (52 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — York United 1.42 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cavalry FC win broke the near-deadlock. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.