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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Valour and Atlético Ottawa share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Valour and Atlético Ottawa finished level at 3-3 at Princess Auto Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.07 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.50 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Valour beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Atlético Ottawa outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.77 / defence 1.12 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.17 / defence 0.76, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valour 24% | Draw 31% | Atlético Ottawa 44%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 60%, Atlético Ottawa 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valour's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Atlético Ottawa arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Valour (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights