Valour 3-3 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Atlético Ottawa (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Valour face Atlético Ottawa.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Princess Auto Stadium plays host to Valour versus Atlético Ottawa in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 5 October 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valour have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Valour have posted 4W 3D 3L at Princess Auto Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Atlético Ottawa (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atlético Ottawa away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Atlético Ottawa arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Atlético Ottawa, who have claimed 6 wins from 9 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Atlético Ottawa winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Atlético Ottawa have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Atlético Ottawa half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 62% versus Atlético Ottawa 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valour 60% | Atlético Ottawa 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 1.07 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.768 / defence 1.121 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.174 / defence 0.760. League average goals — home 1.835 / away 1.143. Valour's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Atlético Ottawa's defence strength of 0.760 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 53 Valour games / 53 Atlético Ottawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valour 24% | Draw 31% | Atlético Ottawa 44%. Fair-value odds: Valour 4.17 | Draw 3.23 | Atlético Ottawa 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atlético Ottawa at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Valour 70% | Atlético Ottawa 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Princess Auto Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Oct 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 24% | Draw 31% | Atlético Ottawa 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Valour 1.07 / Atlético Ottawa 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 0.768 / def 1.121 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.174 / def 0.760 | league avg home 1.835 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Valour xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Atlético Ottawa xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
Valour vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 5 October 2025 at Princess Auto Stadium.
What was the final score in Valour vs Atlético Ottawa?
Valour 3 - 3 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is Valour vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at Princess Auto Stadium.
What competition is Valour vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
Valour vs Atlético Ottawa is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 24% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Valour and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Atlético Ottawa?
Record (9 meetings): Valour 1W | Draws 2 | Atlético Ottawa 6W.
What form are Valour and Atlético Ottawa in?
Valour (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Valour's attack at 0.77x the league average against Atlético Ottawa's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atlético Ottawa's attack (1.17x) against Valour's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
24%
4.14
31%
3.18
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Valour xG
Total xG
2.57
1.50
Atlético Ottawa xG
4.14
24%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
5%
18.63
15%
6.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.5 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Valour and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Valour and 1.50 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Valour have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 13W 11D 29L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atlético Ottawa's form line: 24W 20D 9L from 53 games, 1.74 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Atlético Ottawa are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valour.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Valour have posted 1.23 PPG from 26 outings (9W 5D 12L).
On the road, Atlético Ottawa have gone 11W 9D 6L from 26 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Valour are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 1.72 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valour have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Blended
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 13W 11D 29L in their last 53 games (0.94 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 24W 20D 9L in their last 53 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
Atlético Ottawa's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 1.23 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Valour or Atlético Ottawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valour have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Atlético Ottawa in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won 5-2 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valour have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Valour
3
Draws
6
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Atlético Ottawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 1, Atlético Ottawa have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valour and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Valour 3-3 Atlético Ottawa.
Who has won more matches between Valour and Atlético Ottawa?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valour 58%, Atlético Ottawa 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Valour) and 42% (Atlético Ottawa).
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa in 35%; Valour have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play Atlético Ottawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Valour's recent matches and 46% of Atlético Ottawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valour vs Atlético Ottawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Valour's recent games and 42% of Atlético Ottawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and Atlético Ottawa tend to score early?
Valour have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Atlético Ottawa in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valour and Atlético Ottawa share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valour and Atlético Ottawa finished level at 3-3 at Princess Auto Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.07 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.50 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Valour beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Atlético Ottawa outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.77 / defence 1.12 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.17 / defence 0.76, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 24% | Draw 31% | Atlético Ottawa 44%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 60%, Atlético Ottawa 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atlético Ottawa arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Valour (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.