Supra du Quebec 2-1 HFX Wanderers FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Supra du Quebec at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Supra du Quebec face HFX Wanderers FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
CEPSUM Stadium plays host to Supra du Quebec versus HFX Wanderers FC in Canadian Premier League (Group Stage). Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 00:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
HFX Wanderers FC's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
HFX Wanderers FC away from home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Supra du Quebec 1.51 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.996 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: built from Supra du Quebec's last 0 games and HFX Wanderers FC's last 28. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 37% | Draw 28% | HFX Wanderers FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Supra du Quebec 2.69 | Draw 3.54 | HFX Wanderers FC 2.89. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.51 / 1.45) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Supra du Quebec at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Supra du Quebec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Supra du Quebec 0 games, HFX Wanderers FC 28) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: CEPSUM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 00:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 37% | Draw 28% | HFX Wanderers FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Supra du Quebec 1.51 / HFX Wanderers FC 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.996 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Supra du Quebec (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Supra du Quebec xG
Expected Goals
1.45
HFX Wanderers FC xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC FAQs
What time does Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC kick off?
Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC kicked off at 00:00 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at CEPSUM Stadium.
What was the final score in Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Supra du Quebec 2 - 1 HFX Wanderers FC.
Where is Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC being played?
The match is being played at CEPSUM Stadium.
What competition is Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC part of?
Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC is a Canadian Premier League fixture (Group Stage) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our statistical model gives Supra du Quebec a 37% chance of winning, HFX Wanderers FC a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Supra du Quebec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Supra du Quebec and HFX Wanderers FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Supra du Quebec's attack at 0.85x the league average against HFX Wanderers FC's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — HFX Wanderers FC's attack (1.00x) against Supra du Quebec's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from Supra du Quebec's last 0 games and HFX Wanderers FC's last 28, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Supra du Quebec Win
37%
2.69
28%
3.54
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Supra du Quebec xG
Total xG
2.96
1.45
HFX Wanderers FC xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
9%
11.51
8%
13.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.3 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Supra du Quebec and HFX Wanderers FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Supra du Quebec and 1.45 for HFX Wanderers FC, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Supra du Quebec
Pre-Season
HFX Wanderers FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Supra du Quebec (Home) vs HFX Wanderers FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Supra du Quebec
Pre-Season
HFX Wanderers FC
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2026 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Supra du Quebec have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against HFX Wanderers FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Supra du Quebec
0
Draws
1
HFX Wanderers FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Supra du Quebec and HFX Wanderers FC?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Supra du Quebec have won 3, HFX Wanderers FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Supra du Quebec and HFX Wanderers FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: HFX Wanderers FC 3-4 Supra du Quebec.
Who has won more matches between Supra du Quebec and HFX Wanderers FC?
Supra du Quebec have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Supra du Quebec home games / HFX Wanderers FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Supra du Quebec edge out HFX Wanderers FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Supra du Quebec beat HFX Wanderers FC 2-1 at CEPSUM Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Supra du Quebec 1.51 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.45 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Supra du Quebec attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against HFX Wanderers FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 0/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Supra du Quebec 37% | Draw 28% | HFX Wanderers FC 35%, with Supra du Quebec to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.