📋

Poisson model rates Supra du Quebec at 36%, yet in-form Forge provide a compelling counter-argument — this Supra du Quebec vs Forge fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Canadian Premier League encounter, Group Stage sees Forge travel to CEPSUM Stadium to take on Supra du Quebec. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 July 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Supra du Quebec stand at 3W 2D 4L from 9 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.22 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.44 goals per game and conceding 1.56 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Supra du Quebec, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Supra du Quebec's home record at CEPSUM Stadium: 2W 1D 2L from 5 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Forge — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Forge have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Forge — 1.28 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.22). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Supra du Quebec register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Forge in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Supra du Quebec, 1 for Forge and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Forge winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Team Stats

Supra du Quebec have played 9 games this season, recording 3W 2D 4L. They average 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Biggest win: 3-1 (H) / 2-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-1 (H) / 5-3 (A). Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 9 games (33%). Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards per game, 0.22 reds per game.

Across 11 matches this season, Forge have gone 9W 1D 1L. They average 1.6 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game. Biggest win: 2-0 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: – (H) / 2-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 1 game this season. 7 clean sheets this season (5 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 11 games (27%). Penalties this season: 1 scored / 0 missed from 1 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards per game, 0.09 reds per game.

Forge have kept their defensive record in better shape, conceding 0.50 per game versus 1.60 for the hosts. Supra du Quebec are averaging significantly more yellow cards per game this season — a risk factor worth noting for card markets. Forge have been awarded 1 penalty this season (1 scored).

In-Play Profile

Supra du Quebec in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Forge in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Supra du Quebec 67% versus Forge 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Supra du Quebec 44% | Forge 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Supra du Quebec 1.49 xG and Forge 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Forge attack 1.007 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.267. Data: 0 Supra du Quebec games / 28 Forge games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 36% | Draw 28% | Forge 35%. Fair-value odds: Supra du Quebec 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Forge 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Supra du Quebec as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Forge (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Supra du Quebec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Supra du Quebec 60% | Forge 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights