Pacific FC 0-1 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 46%, yet in-form York United provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pacific FC vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
York United travel to Starlight Stadium to take on Pacific FC in Canadian Premier League (Group Stage). The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 May 2026 at 22:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Pacific FC have gone 0W 5D 5L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pacific FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Pacific FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, York United stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, York United have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. York United are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Pacific FC, 3 for York United and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 10 Oct 2025, ended Pacific FC 2–2 York United — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
York United in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 44% versus York United 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 46% | York United 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Pacific FC surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while York United have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.76 xG and York United 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 0.981 / defence 1.068 | York United attack 0.962 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: built from Pacific FC's last 28 games and York United's last 28. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 46% | Draw 27% | York United 27%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 2.15 | Draw 3.72 | York United 3.75. Pacific FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.76 / 1.30) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pacific FC as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form York United (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Pacific FC's last 10 home games and York United's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pacific FC 70% (last 10 home games) | York United 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Pacific FC 28 games, York United 28) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 22:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 46% | Draw 27% | York United 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Pacific FC 1.76 / York United 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 0.981 / def 1.068 | York United attack 0.962 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.30
York United xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pacific FC vs York United FAQs
What time does Pacific FC vs York United kick off?
Pacific FC vs York United kicked off at 22:00 UK time on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs York United?
Pacific FC 0 - 1 York United.
Where is Pacific FC vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs York United part of?
Pacific FC vs York United is a Canadian Premier League fixture (Group Stage) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 46% chance of winning, York United a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs York United?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Pacific FC and York United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pacific FC vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pacific FC's attack at 0.98x the league average against York United's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, York United's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pacific FC's last 28 games and York United's last 28, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
46%
2.15
27%
3.72
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
3.06
1.30
York United xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
13%
7.93
5%
21.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.7 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pacific FC vs York United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.30 for York United, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pacific FC's recent record stands at 14W 15D 28L from 57 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five.
York United, meanwhile, have gone 21W 16D 20L across 57 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-D-L-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pacific FC on 1.00 PPG, York United on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pacific FC have managed 10W 7D 11L from their last 28 home games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
York United's away record stands at 7W 8D 13L across their last 28 away games, a 1.04 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Pacific FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.40 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York United in 61%.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Current Season
York United
Current Season
Pacific FC (Home) vs York United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pacific FC
Current Season
York United
Current Season
❓ Pacific FC vs York United Form FAQs
What form are Pacific FC and York United in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 14W 15D 28L in their last 57 games (1.00 PPG), while York United have gone 21W 16D 20L in their last 57 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or York United away?
Pacific FC's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.32 PPG; York United away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 27 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Aug 2025, when York United won York United 5-1 Pacific FC.
Pacific FC's record when hosting York United specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pacific FC
3
Draws
4
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Pacific FC vs York United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and York United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pacific FC have won 3, York United have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and York United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 September 2026: York United 3-4 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 43%, York United 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Pacific FC) and 57% (York United).
On the defensive side: Pacific FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Pacific FC have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pacific FC vs York United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pacific FC and York United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 61% of York United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pacific FC and York United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Pacific FC's recent games and 57% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacific FC and York United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 71% of York United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as York United defy the odds to beat Pacific FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Pacific FC 0-1 at Starlight Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.76 xG and York United 1.30 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pacific FC fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.07 against York United attack 0.96 / defence 0.99, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 46% | Draw 27% | York United 27%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual York United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 46%, York United 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
York United's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.00 PPG, York United 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the York United win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. York United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.