Pacific FC 1-3 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 46%, yet in-form Vancouver FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Vancouver FC travel to Starlight Stadium to take on Pacific FC in Canadian Premier League (Group Stage). The game is scheduled for Monday 4 May 2026 at 00:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Pacific FC stand at 0W 5D 5L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pacific FC's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Pacific FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Vancouver FC have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Vancouver FC away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Vancouver FC's 1.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Pacific FC's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Pacific FC's last 10 home games and Vancouver FC's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Pacific FC have won 2, Vancouver FC 1, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2025, ended Pacific FC 1–1 Vancouver FC — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Vancouver FC in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 45% versus Vancouver FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 46% | Vancouver FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.78 xG and Vancouver FC 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 0.979 / defence 1.077 | Vancouver FC attack 1.000 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: built from Pacific FC's last 28 games and Vancouver FC's last 28. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 46% | Draw 27% | Vancouver FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 2.20 | Draw 3.76 | Vancouver FC 3.58. Pacific FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.78 / 1.37) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pacific FC at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vancouver FC (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Pacific FC's last 10 home games and Vancouver FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pacific FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Vancouver FC 70% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Pacific FC 28 games, Vancouver FC 28) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 4 May 2026 at 00:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 46% | Draw 27% | Vancouver FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Pacific FC 1.78 / Vancouver FC 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 0.979 / def 1.077 | Vancouver FC attack 1.000 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Vancouver FC xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC FAQs
What time does Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC kick off?
Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 00:00 UK time on Monday 4 May 2026 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Pacific FC 1 - 3 Vancouver FC.
Where is Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC part of?
Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC is a Canadian Premier League fixture (Group Stage) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 46% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Pacific FC and Vancouver FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pacific FC's attack at 0.98x the league average against Vancouver FC's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vancouver FC's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pacific FC's last 28 games and Vancouver FC's last 28, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
46%
2.20
27%
3.76
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
3.14
1.37
Vancouver FC xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
12%
8.61
5%
21.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.37 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pacific FC's recent record stands at 13W 15D 28L from 56 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Vancouver FC, meanwhile, have gone 11W 18D 27L across 56 games — 0.91 PPG, with W-W-D-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pacific FC on 0.96 PPG, Vancouver FC on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pacific FC have managed 9W 7D 11L from their last 27 home games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vancouver FC's away record stands at 5W 10D 12L across their last 27 away games, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Pacific FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Vancouver FC are on 1.14 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vancouver FC in 61%.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Current Season
Vancouver FC
Current Season
Pacific FC (Home) vs Vancouver FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pacific FC
Current Season
Vancouver FC
Current Season
❓ Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC Form FAQs
What form are Pacific FC and Vancouver FC in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 13W 15D 28L in their last 56 games (0.96 PPG), while Vancouver FC have gone 11W 18D 27L in their last 56 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Vancouver FC away?
Pacific FC's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.26 PPG; Vancouver FC away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2024. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Sep 2024, when Pacific FC won Pacific FC 3-0 Vancouver FC.
Pacific FC's record when hosting Vancouver FC specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pacific FC
5
Draws
3
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Vancouver FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pacific FC have won 2, Vancouver FC have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Vancouver FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Pacific FC 1-1 Vancouver FC.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Vancouver FC?
Vancouver FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 44%, Vancouver FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Pacific FC) and 59% (Vancouver FC).
On the defensive side: Pacific FC have failed to score in 30% of games; Vancouver FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pacific FC and Vancouver FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Pacific FC's games and 67% of Vancouver FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pacific FC and Vancouver FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Pacific FC's recent games and 59% of Vancouver FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacific FC and Vancouver FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 82% of Vancouver FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vancouver FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Pacific FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vancouver FC beat Pacific FC 1-3 at Starlight Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.78 xG and Vancouver FC 1.37 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Vancouver FC outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.08 against Vancouver FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.00, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 46% | Draw 27% | Vancouver FC 28%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Vancouver FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 46%, Vancouver FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Vancouver FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 0.96 PPG, Vancouver FC 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vancouver FC win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.