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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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HFX Wanderers FC and York United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

HFX Wanderers FC and York United finished level at 1-1 at Wanderers Grounds, Regular Season - 26, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting HFX Wanderers FC 1.86 xG and York United 0.83 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. HFX Wanderers FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HFX Wanderers FC attack 1.10 / defence 0.85 against York United attack 0.86 / defence 0.90, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it HFX Wanderers FC 60% | Draw 25% | York United 15%, with HFX Wanderers FC to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HFX Wanderers FC 62%, York United 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

York United's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — HFX Wanderers FC 1.23 PPG, York United 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights