Forge 0-0 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Forge at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Forge face Cavalry FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Forge host Cavalry FC at Tim Hortons Field in Canadian Premier League (Group Stage). Kick-off is Saturday 18 April 2026 at 21:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Forge — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Forge's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Forge are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Cavalry FC have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Forge 1.20 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Forge, 3 for Cavalry FC and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2025, ended Forge 0–1 Cavalry FC — a Cavalry FC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Forge in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Cavalry FC in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 49% versus Cavalry FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 54% | Cavalry FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.92 xG and Cavalry FC 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.046 / defence 0.919 | Cavalry FC attack 1.009 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: built from Forge's last 28 games and Cavalry FC's last 28. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Forge 53% | Draw 26% | Cavalry FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Forge 1.89 | Draw 3.91 | Cavalry FC 4.66. Forge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.92 / 1.18) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Forge are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Forge's last 10 home games and Cavalry FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Forge 30% (last 10 home games) | Cavalry FC 70% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Forge 28 games, Cavalry FC 28) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 53% | Draw 26% | Cavalry FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Forge 1.92 / Cavalry FC 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.046 / def 0.919 | Cavalry FC attack 1.009 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Forge (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Forge xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Cavalry FC xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Forge vs Cavalry FC FAQs
What time does Forge vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Forge vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Forge 0 - 0 Cavalry FC.
Where is Forge vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs Cavalry FC part of?
Forge vs Cavalry FC is a Canadian Premier League fixture (Group Stage) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 53% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Forge and Cavalry FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Forge vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Forge's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Cavalry FC's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. The same calculation in reverse, Cavalry FC's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Forge's last 28 games and Cavalry FC's last 28, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
53%
1.89
26%
3.91
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Forge xG
Total xG
3.09
1.18
Cavalry FC xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
15%
6.79
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
3%
31.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Forge vs Cavalry FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Forge and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Forge and 1.18 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Forge come into this having played 61 games, going 32W 15D 14L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Cavalry FC sit at 1.67 PPG from 61 outings (27W 21D 13L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Forge on 1.82 PPG, Cavalry FC on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Forge's home form reads 20W 6D 5L across their last 31 home games, a 2.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Cavalry FC have taken 1.48 points per game from their last 31 away games (12W 10D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Forge are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.56 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cavalry FC in 62%.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Current Season
Cavalry FC
Current Season
Forge (Home) vs Cavalry FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Forge
Current Season
Cavalry FC
Current Season
❓ Forge vs Cavalry FC Form FAQs
What form are Forge and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 32W 15D 14L in their last 61 games (1.82 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 27W 21D 13L in their last 61 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or Cavalry FC away?
Forge's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 2.13 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Forge or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2024. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Aug 2025, when Cavalry FC won Cavalry FC 4-1 Forge.
Forge's record when hosting Cavalry FC specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Forge
4
Draws
4
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Forge vs Cavalry FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Cavalry FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Forge have won 2, Cavalry FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Forge and Cavalry FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Cavalry FC 1-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 45%, Cavalry FC 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Forge) and 52% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Forge keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Forge vs Cavalry FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Forge and Cavalry FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Forge's recent matches and 61% of Cavalry FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Forge and Cavalry FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Forge's recent games and 52% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and Cavalry FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Forge's recent matches and 61% of Cavalry FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Forge's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge and Cavalry FC finished level at 0-0 at Tim Hortons Field, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.92 xG and Cavalry FC 1.18 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Forge fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Cavalry FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.05 / defence 0.92 against Cavalry FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.01, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 53% | Draw 26% | Cavalry FC 21%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 54%, Cavalry FC 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Forge 1.82 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Forge (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.