Cavalry FC 1-1 York United – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cavalry FC vs York United encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

ATCO Field plays host to Cavalry FC versus York United in Canadian Premier League (Group Stage). Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 22:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Cavalry FC have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Cavalry FC have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Cavalry FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

York United's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, York United have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Cavalry FC's favour (1.50 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Cavalry FC edge it 4 wins to 2, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2025, ended Cavalry FC 4–1 York United — a Cavalry FC win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

York United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cavalry FC 62% and York United 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 53% | York United 62%). Note also that York United surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Cavalry FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.85 xG and York United 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.034 / defence 0.979 | York United attack 0.955 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: built from Cavalry FC's last 28 games and York United's last 28. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 51% | Draw 26% | York United 23%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 1.95 | Draw 3.82 | York United 4.43. Cavalry FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.85 / 1.19) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Cavalry FC are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Cavalry FC's last 10 home games and York United's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cavalry FC 50% (last 10 home games) | York United 50% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Cavalry FC 28 games, York United 28) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights