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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Cavalry FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of York United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cavalry FC beat York United 4-1 at ATCO Field, Quarter-finals, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 2.02 xG and York United 0.89 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Cavalry FC beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.17 / defence 0.89 against York United attack 0.79 / defence 0.96, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 62% | Draw 24% | York United 14%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 53%, York United 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cavalry FC's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

York United's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cavalry FC 1.66 PPG, York United 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cavalry FC win broke the near-deadlock. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm. York United (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights