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Poisson model rates Cavalry FC at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cavalry FC vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

ATCO Field plays host to Cavalry FC versus York United in Canadian Premier League, Quarter-finals. Kick-off: Sunday 26 October 2025 at 22:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Cavalry FC have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters this season, Cavalry FC have posted 6W 2D 2L at ATCO Field — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

York United's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, York United have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Cavalry FC, 1.30 for York United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cavalry FC lead 4W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2025, ended 1–3 with York United winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).

York United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cavalry FC 62% and York United 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 53% | York United 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 2.02 xG and York United 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.170 / defence 0.890 | York United attack 0.790 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.267. Data: 56 Cavalry FC games / 56 York United games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 62% | Draw 24% | York United 14%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 1.61 | Draw 4.17 | York United 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Cavalry FC (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Cavalry FC are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Cavalry FC 50% | York United 50%.

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