Cavalry FC 2-1 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cavalry FC (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cavalry FC face York United.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
ATCO Field plays host to Cavalry FC versus York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 8 June 2025 at 23:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cavalry FC have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cavalry FC have posted 4W 5D 1L at ATCO Field — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
York United's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, York United have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Cavalry FC's favour (2.10 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cavalry FC have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, York United in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Cavalry FC, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against York United — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2025, ended 2–1 with Cavalry FC winning.
The historical record gives Cavalry FC a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
York United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cavalry FC 64% and York United 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 52% | York United 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 2.14 xG and York United 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.249 / defence 0.907 | York United attack 1.020 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.224. Data: 36 Cavalry FC games / 37 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 60% | Draw 22% | York United 19%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | York United 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Cavalry FC (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.14 / 1.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cavalry FC are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 80% | York United 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Jun 2025, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 60% | Draw 22% | York United 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 61% | xG Cavalry FC 2.14 / York United 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.249 / def 0.907 | York United attack 1.020 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.13
York United xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs York United kick off?
Cavalry FC vs York United kicked off at 23:00 on Sunday 8 June 2025 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs York United?
Cavalry FC 2 - 1 York United.
Where is Cavalry FC vs York United being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs York United part of?
Cavalry FC vs York United is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 60% chance of winning, York United a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Cavalry FC and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and York United?
Record (3 meetings): Cavalry FC 3W | Draws 0 | York United 0W.
What form are Cavalry FC and York United in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. York United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cavalry FC's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against York United's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.14. Flip it around — York United's attack (1.02x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
60%
1.67
22%
4.60
19%
5.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
3.28
1.13
York United xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
5.39
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
12%
8.53
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
2%
46.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and York United expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.13 for York United, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs York United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Cavalry FC have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 31W 17D 11L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
York United's form line: 23W 12D 24L from 59 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D.
Put side by side, Cavalry FC are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against York United.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cavalry FC have posted 2.03 PPG from 30 outings (17W 10D 3L).
On the road, York United have gone 11W 7D 12L from 30 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.25 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cavalry FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Current Season
York United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and York United in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 31W 17D 11L in their last 59 games (1.86 PPG), while York United have gone 23W 12D 24L in their last 59 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or York United away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.03 PPG; York United away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Cavalry FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 5-0 on 2 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against York United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Cavalry FC
1
Draws
2
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 7, York United have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and York United last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Cavalry FC 5-0 York United.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and York United?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cavalry FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Cavalry FC, 67% for York United — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Cavalry FC and 63% for York United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play York United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Cavalry FC's games and 67% of York United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cavalry FC vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Cavalry FC's matches and 63% of York United's.
Do Cavalry FC and York United tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, York United in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out York United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat York United 2-1 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 10, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 2.14 xG and York United 1.13 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.25 / defence 0.91 against York United attack 1.02 / defence 1.11, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 60% | Draw 22% | York United 19%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 52%, York United 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
York United's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.37. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.