Cavalry FC 5-4 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
ATCO Field plays host to Cavalry FC versus Vancouver FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Monday 18 August 2025 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cavalry FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at ATCO Field, Cavalry FC have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Cavalry FC are significantly better at ATCO Field than their overall form suggests.
Vancouver FC have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vancouver FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vancouver FC have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Cavalry FC's 1.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Vancouver FC's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Cavalry FC, 0 for Vancouver FC and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.6 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jul 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Vancouver FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 56% versus Vancouver FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 46% | Vancouver FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.59 xG and Vancouver FC 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 0.866 / defence 0.821 | Vancouver FC attack 1.052 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.229. Vancouver FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing Cavalry FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Cavalry FC games / 46 Vancouver FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 47% | Draw 30% | Vancouver FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Vancouver FC 4.35. Cavalry FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cavalry FC at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 0.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Cavalry FC 40% | Vancouver FC 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Monday 18 Aug 2025, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 47% | Draw 30% | Vancouver FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Cavalry FC 1.59 / Vancouver FC 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 0.866 / def 0.821 | Vancouver FC attack 1.052 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Vancouver FC xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 00:00 on Monday 18 August 2025 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Cavalry FC 5 - 4 Vancouver FC.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC part of?
Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 47% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC?
Record (5 meetings): Cavalry FC 1W | Draws 4 | Vancouver FC 0W.
What form are Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Vancouver FC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cavalry FC's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Vancouver FC's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Vancouver FC's attack (1.05x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
47%
2.12
30%
3.31
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.66
1.06
Vancouver FC xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
5%
21.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.9 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.06 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, Cavalry FC have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 21W 16D 9L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vancouver FC's form line: 9W 14D 23L from 46 games, 0.89 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Vancouver FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cavalry FC are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vancouver FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cavalry FC have posted 1.70 PPG from 23 outings (10W 9D 4L).
On the road, Vancouver FC have gone 5W 7D 11L from 23 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Vancouver FC are on 1.04 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
Vancouver FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 21W 16D 9L in their last 46 games (1.72 PPG), while Vancouver FC have gone 9W 14D 23L in their last 46 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Vancouver FC away?
Cavalry FC's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 1.70 PPG; Vancouver FC away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Vancouver FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Vancouver FC in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Vancouver FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cavalry FC
5
Draws
1
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 4, Vancouver FC have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Cavalry FC 1-0 Vancouver FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 61%, Vancouver FC 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Cavalry FC) and 65% (Vancouver FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Vancouver FC in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Vancouver FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Cavalry FC's games and 61% of Vancouver FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Cavalry FC's matches and 65% of Vancouver FC's.
Do Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Vancouver FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out Vancouver FC 5-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Vancouver FC 5-4 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 19, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.59 xG and Vancouver FC 1.06 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 5-4 for 9 actual goals. Cavalry FC beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vancouver FC outscored their 1.06 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 0.87 / defence 0.82 against Vancouver FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.24, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 47% | Draw 30% | Vancouver FC 23%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 46%, Vancouver FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Vancouver FC's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.