Cavalry FC 1-1 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cavalry FC vs Valour encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
ATCO Field plays host to Cavalry FC versus Valour in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024 at 22:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cavalry FC have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cavalry FC have posted 8W 0D 2L at ATCO Field — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Valour's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Valour's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Cavalry FC's 2.20 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Valour's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Cavalry FC 1W, Valour 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 2–1 with Cavalry FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Cavalry FC half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 59% versus Valour 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 57% | Valour 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 2.00 xG and Valour 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.026 / defence 0.996 | Valour attack 0.929 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 1.557 / away 1.018. Valour bring a strong defensive rating of 1.250 — this is suppressing Cavalry FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Cavalry FC games / 34 Valour games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 59% | Draw 27% | Valour 14%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 1.69 | Draw 3.70 | Valour 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Cavalry FC (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cavalry FC as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Cavalry FC 50% | Valour 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 59% | Draw 27% | Valour 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG Cavalry FC 2.00 / Valour 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.026 / def 0.996 | Valour attack 0.929 / def 1.250 | league avg home 1.557 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Valour xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Valour kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Valour kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Cavalry FC 1 - 1 Valour.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Valour part of?
Cavalry FC vs Valour is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 59% chance of winning, Valour a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Cavalry FC and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Valour?
Record (2 meetings): Cavalry FC 1W | Draws 0 | Valour 1W.
What form are Cavalry FC and Valour in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Valour (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cavalry FC's attack at 1.03x the league average against Valour's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valour's attack (0.93x) against Cavalry FC's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
The sample (34/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
59%
1.70
27%
3.70
14%
7.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.94
0.94
Valour xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
7.11
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
14%
7.37
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
2%
52.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.0 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 0.94 for Valour, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Cavalry FC have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 29W 12D 15L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Valour's form line: 16W 15D 25L from 56 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Cavalry FC are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valour.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cavalry FC have posted 2.07 PPG from 28 outings (18W 4D 6L).
On the road, Valour have gone 6W 7D 15L from 28 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.09 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Current Season
Valour
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Valour in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 29W 12D 15L in their last 56 games (1.77 PPG), while Valour have gone 16W 15D 25L in their last 56 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Valour away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.07 PPG; Valour away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 4-0 on 25 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Cavalry FC
2
Draws
2
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 6, Valour have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Cavalry FC 3-0 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Valour?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 57%, Valour 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Cavalry FC) and 50% (Valour). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Valour in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Valour?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Cavalry FC's games and 61% of Valour's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cavalry FC vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Cavalry FC's matches and 50% of Valour's.
Do Cavalry FC and Valour tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Valour in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cavalry FC and Valour share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 4, as Cavalry FC and Valour drew 1-1 in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 2.00 xG and Valour 0.94 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Cavalry FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.00 against Valour attack 0.93 / defence 1.25, drawn from 34/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 59% | Draw 27% | Valour 14%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 59%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 57%, Valour 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Valour's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.