Cavalry FC 1-1 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cavalry FC vs Valour encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
ATCO Field plays host to Cavalry FC versus Valour in Canadian Premier League (matchday 4). Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024 at 23:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Cavalry FC have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Cavalry FC have posted 8W 0D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Valour's record over their last 10 games: 3W 0D 7L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Valour's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Cavalry FC's 2.20 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Valour's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Cavalry FC 2–1 Valour — a Cavalry FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Cavalry FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 59% versus Valour 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 57% | Valour 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 2.00 xG and Valour 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.026 / defence 0.996 | Valour attack 0.929 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 1.557 / away 1.018. Valour's defence rating of 1.250 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cavalry FC's projected output up. Data: built from Cavalry FC's last 34 games and Valour's last 34. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 59% | Draw 27% | Valour 14%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 1.70 | Draw 3.70 | Valour 7.11. The model has a clear lean to Cavalry FC (59%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cavalry FC as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cavalry FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Valour 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Cavalry FC 34 games, Valour 34) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 4 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024 at 23:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 59% | Draw 27% | Valour 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Cavalry FC 2.00 / Valour 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.026 / def 0.996 | Valour attack 0.929 / def 1.250 | league avg home 1.557 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Valour xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cavalry FC vs Valour FAQs
What time does Cavalry FC vs Valour kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Valour kicked off at 23:00 UK time on Sunday 26 May 2024 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Cavalry FC 1 - 1 Valour.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Valour part of?
Cavalry FC vs Valour is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 4) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 59% chance of winning, Valour a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Cavalry FC and Valour will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cavalry FC vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cavalry FC's attack at 1.03x the league average against Valour's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valour's attack (0.93x) against Cavalry FC's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from Cavalry FC's last 34 games and Valour's last 34, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
59%
1.70
27%
3.70
14%
7.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.94
0.94
Valour xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
7.11
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
14%
7.37
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
2%
52.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.0 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cavalry FC vs Valour Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 0.94 for Valour, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Cavalry FC have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 29W 12D 15L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Valour's form line: 16W 15D 25L from 56 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Cavalry FC are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valour.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cavalry FC have posted 2.07 PPG from their last 28 home games (18W 4D 6L).
On the road, Valour have gone 6W 7D 15L from their last 28 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.09 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Current Season
Valour
Current Season
Cavalry FC (Home) vs Valour (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cavalry FC
Current Season
Valour
Current Season
❓ Cavalry FC vs Valour Form FAQs
What form are Cavalry FC and Valour in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 29W 12D 15L in their last 56 games (1.77 PPG), while Valour have gone 16W 15D 25L in their last 56 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Valour away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.07 PPG; Valour away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 20 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won Cavalry FC 4-0 Valour on 25 May 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Cavalry FC
2
Draws
2
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Cavalry FC vs Valour H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Valour?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Cavalry FC have won 6, Valour have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Valour last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2025: Cavalry FC 3-0 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Valour?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 57%, Valour 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Cavalry FC) and 50% (Valour). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Valour in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cavalry FC vs Valour Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cavalry FC and Valour matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Cavalry FC's games and 61% of Valour's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cavalry FC and Valour matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Cavalry FC's matches and 50% of Valour's.
Do Cavalry FC and Valour matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 64% of Valour's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cavalry FC and Valour share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 4, as Cavalry FC and Valour drew 1-1 in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 2.00 xG and Valour 0.94 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Cavalry FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.00 against Valour attack 0.93 / defence 1.25, drawn from 34/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 59% | Draw 27% | Valour 14%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 59%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 57%, Valour 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Valour's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.