HFX Wanderers FC 1-2 Valour – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates HFX Wanderers FC at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this HFX Wanderers FC vs Valour fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
HFX Wanderers FC and Valour meet at Wanderers Grounds in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Monday 20 May 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
HFX Wanderers FC (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
HFX Wanderers FC's home record at Wanderers Grounds: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Valour's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Valour's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for HFX Wanderers FC against 0.90 for Valour. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — HFX Wanderers FC lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with HFX Wanderers FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
HFX Wanderers FC — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Valour — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — HFX Wanderers FC 48% versus Valour 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (HFX Wanderers FC 48% | Valour 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects HFX Wanderers FC 1.96 xG and Valour 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.969 / defence 1.191 | Valour attack 0.831 / defence 1.385. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.025. Valour bring a strong defensive rating of 1.385 — this is suppressing HFX Wanderers FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 HFX Wanderers FC games / 33 Valour games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: HFX Wanderers FC 56% | Draw 28% | Valour 16%. Fair-value odds: HFX Wanderers FC 1.79 | Draw 3.57 | Valour 6.25. The model has a clear lean to HFX Wanderers FC (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, HFX Wanderers FC are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: HFX Wanderers FC 60% | Valour 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: HFX Wanderers FC vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Wanderers Grounds • Kick-off: Monday 20 May 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: HFX Wanderers FC 56% | Draw 28% | Valour 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG HFX Wanderers FC 1.96 / Valour 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.969 / def 1.191 | Valour attack 0.831 / def 1.385 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: HFX Wanderers FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
HFX Wanderers FC xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Valour xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does HFX Wanderers FC vs Valour kick off?
HFX Wanderers FC vs Valour kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 20 May 2024 at Wanderers Grounds.
What was the final score in HFX Wanderers FC vs Valour?
HFX Wanderers FC 1 - 2 Valour.
Where is HFX Wanderers FC vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at Wanderers Grounds.
What competition is HFX Wanderers FC vs Valour part of?
HFX Wanderers FC vs Valour is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win HFX Wanderers FC vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives HFX Wanderers FC a 56% chance of winning, Valour a 16% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making HFX Wanderers FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in HFX Wanderers FC vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both HFX Wanderers FC and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will HFX Wanderers FC vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between HFX Wanderers FC and Valour?
Record (2 meetings): HFX Wanderers FC 2W | Draws 0 | Valour 0W.
What form are HFX Wanderers FC and Valour in?
HFX Wanderers FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Valour (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
HFX Wanderers FC's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Valour's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. Flip it around — Valour's attack (0.83x) against HFX Wanderers FC's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
The sample (32/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
HFX Wanderers FC Win
56%
1.78
28%
3.61
16%
6.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
HFX Wanderers FC xG
Total xG
2.97
1.01
Valour xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
6.24
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
14%
7.09
Win to Nil
20%
4.90
2%
44.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.2 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for HFX Wanderers FC vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are HFX Wanderers FC and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for HFX Wanderers FC and 1.01 for Valour, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for HFX Wanderers FC vs Valour?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
HFX Wanderers FC come into this having played 56 games, going 18W 14D 24L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Valour sit at 1.12 PPG from 56 outings (16W 15D 25L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for HFX Wanderers FC against 1.12 for Valour. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
HFX Wanderers FC's home form reads 13W 4D 11L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Valour have taken 0.89 points per game from 28 outings (6W 7D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, HFX Wanderers FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
HFX Wanderers FC are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.09 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
HFX Wanderers FC
Current Season
Valour
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are HFX Wanderers FC and Valour in coming into this match?
HFX Wanderers FC have gone 18W 14D 24L in their last 56 games (1.21 PPG), while Valour have gone 16W 15D 25L in their last 56 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — HFX Wanderers FC at home or Valour away?
HFX Wanderers FC's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — HFX Wanderers FC at home: 1.54 PPG; Valour away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 11 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
HFX Wanderers FC have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: HFX Wanderers FC won 3-0 on 26 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, HFX Wanderers FC have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
HFX Wanderers FC
1
Draws
2
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between HFX Wanderers FC and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, HFX Wanderers FC have won 7, Valour have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did HFX Wanderers FC and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2025, when Valour 0-3 HFX Wanderers FC.
Who has won more matches between HFX Wanderers FC and Valour?
HFX Wanderers FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
HFX Wanderers FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — HFX Wanderers FC 46%, Valour 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (HFX Wanderers FC) and 50% (Valour).
On the defensive side: HFX Wanderers FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Valour in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = HFX Wanderers FC home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when HFX Wanderers FC play Valour?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of HFX Wanderers FC's recent matches and 61% of Valour's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is HFX Wanderers FC vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of HFX Wanderers FC's recent games and 50% of Valour's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do HFX Wanderers FC and Valour tend to score early?
HFX Wanderers FC have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Valour in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Valour defy the odds to beat HFX Wanderers FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valour beat HFX Wanderers FC 1-2 at Wanderers Grounds, Regular Season - 4, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting HFX Wanderers FC 1.96 xG and Valour 1.01 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. HFX Wanderers FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Valour outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.19 against Valour attack 0.83 / defence 1.39, drawn from 32/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it HFX Wanderers FC 56% | Draw 28% | Valour 16%, with HFX Wanderers FC to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Valour win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HFX Wanderers FC 48%, Valour 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Valour's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — HFX Wanderers FC 1.21 PPG, Valour 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valour win broke the near-deadlock. Valour (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.