Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cavalry FC (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cavalry FC face Supra du Quebec.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Supra du Quebec make the trip to ATCO Field to face Cavalry FC in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 01:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cavalry FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC at ATCO Field this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Supra du Quebec have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Supra du Quebec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Supra du Quebec's away record: 3W 2D 4L from 9 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (1.22 PPG). Away from home they average 1.78 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 89% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Cavalry FC. A 1.20 PPG lead over Supra du Quebec (2.30 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cavalry FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Supra du Quebec in 89%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Cavalry FC 2W, Supra du Quebec 0W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cavalry FC — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Supra du Quebec — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cavalry FC 47% and Supra du Quebec 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 47% | Supra du Quebec 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 2.10 xG and Supra du Quebec 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.010 / defence 0.994 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.267. Data: 28 Cavalry FC games / 0 Supra du Quebec games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 60% | Draw 23% | Supra du Quebec 17%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Supra du Quebec 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Cavalry FC (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cavalry FC as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 60% | Supra du Quebec 89% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Sep 2026, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 60% | Draw 23% | Supra du Quebec 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Cavalry FC 2.10 / Supra du Quebec 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.010 / def 0.994 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Supra du Quebec xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec is scheduled to kick off at 01:00 on Saturday 26 September 2026 at ATCO Field.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec part of?
Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 60% chance of winning, Supra du Quebec a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec?
Record (3 meetings): Cavalry FC 2W | Draws 1 | Supra du Quebec 0W.
What form are Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Supra du Quebec (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cavalry FC's attack at 1.01x the league average against Supra du Quebec's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Supra du Quebec's attack (0.85x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 28/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
60%
1.68
23%
4.26
17%
5.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
3.17
1.07
Supra du Quebec xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
5.89
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
12%
8.20
Win to Nil
20%
4.90
2%
48.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.07 for Supra du Quebec, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cavalry FC's recent record stands at 13W 4D 2L from 19 games, a 2.26 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Supra du Quebec, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 9L across 19 games — 1.16 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Supra du Quebec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cavalry FC by 1.10 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Supra du Quebec heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cavalry FC have managed 7W 2D 0L from 9 games — 2.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Supra du Quebec's away record stands at 3W 2D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 0.58 conceded per game recently; Supra du Quebec are on 1.42 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Supra du Quebec in 79%.
Defensively: Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
Supra du Quebec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 13W 4D 2L in their last 19 games (2.26 PPG), while Supra du Quebec have gone 6W 4D 9L in their last 19 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Supra du Quebec away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.56 PPG; Supra du Quebec away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Supra du Quebec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Supra du Quebec in 5%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Cavalry FC
1
Draws
0
Supra du Quebec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec?
From 3 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 2, Supra du Quebec have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Supra du Quebec 1-1 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cavalry FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Supra du Quebec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 56% for Cavalry FC, 89% for Supra du Quebec — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Cavalry FC and 67% for Supra du Quebec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Supra du Quebec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Supra du Quebec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Cavalry FC's games and 89% of Supra du Quebec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Cavalry FC's matches and 67% of Supra du Quebec's.
Do Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Supra du Quebec in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.