Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Supra du Quebec at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Canadian Premier League clash, Group Stage as Supra du Quebec welcome Pacific FC to CEPSUM Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 October 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Supra du Quebec have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Supra du Quebec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Supra du Quebec's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at CEPSUM Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pacific FC stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Supra du Quebec carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Supra du Quebec have won 2, Pacific FC 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2026, ended 2–1 with Supra du Quebec winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Supra du Quebec in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Pacific FC in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 32% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Supra du Quebec 79% and Pacific FC 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Supra du Quebec 58% | Pacific FC 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Supra du Quebec 1.57 xG and Pacific FC 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Pacific FC attack 0.986 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.267. Data: 0 Supra du Quebec games / 28 Pacific FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 39% | Draw 28% | Pacific FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Supra du Quebec 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Pacific FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Supra du Quebec are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Supra du Quebec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Supra du Quebec 70% | Pacific FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: CEPSUM Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 39% | Draw 28% | Pacific FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Supra du Quebec 1.57 / Pacific FC 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Pacific FC attack 0.986 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Supra du Quebec (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Supra du Quebec xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Pacific FC xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC kick off?
Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC is scheduled to kick off at 20:00 on Sunday 4 October 2026 at CEPSUM Stadium.
Where is Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at CEPSUM Stadium.
What competition is Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC part of?
Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Supra du Quebec a 39% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Supra du Quebec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Supra du Quebec and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Supra du Quebec and Pacific FC?
Record (3 meetings): Supra du Quebec 2W | Draws 1 | Pacific FC 0W.
What form are Supra du Quebec and Pacific FC in?
Supra du Quebec (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Pacific FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Supra du Quebec's attack at 0.85x the league average against Pacific FC's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus Supra du Quebec's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Supra du Quebec Win
39%
2.56
28%
3.60
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Supra du Quebec xG
Total xG
3.01
1.44
Pacific FC xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
9%
10.78
7%
14.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.2 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Supra du Quebec and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Supra du Quebec and 1.44 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 19 outings, Supra du Quebec have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 6W 4D 9L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Supra du Quebec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacific FC's form line: 1W 6D 12L from 19 games, 0.47 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-D. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Supra du Quebec are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pacific FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Supra du Quebec have posted 1.22 PPG from 9 outings (3W 2D 4L).
On the road, Pacific FC have gone 0W 4D 5L from 9 away games — 0.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Supra du Quebec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Supra du Quebec are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.16 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Supra du Quebec have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games; Pacific FC in 74%.
Last 19 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Supra du Quebec
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Supra du Quebec and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Supra du Quebec have gone 6W 4D 9L in their last 19 games (1.16 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 1W 6D 12L in their last 19 (0.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Supra du Quebec at home or Pacific FC away?
Supra du Quebec's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Supra du Quebec at home: 1.22 PPG; Pacific FC away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Supra du Quebec and Pacific FC runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Supra du Quebec
1
Draws
0
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Supra du Quebec and Pacific FC?
From 3 meetings on record, Supra du Quebec have won 2, Pacific FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Supra du Quebec and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Pacific FC 1-2 Supra du Quebec.
Who has won more matches between Supra du Quebec and Pacific FC?
Supra du Quebec have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Supra du Quebec see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Supra du Quebec at 78%, Pacific FC at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Supra du Quebec) and 56% (Pacific FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pacific FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Supra du Quebec home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Supra du Quebec play Pacific FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Supra du Quebec's games and 67% of Pacific FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Supra du Quebec's matches and 56% of Pacific FC's.
Do Supra du Quebec and Pacific FC tend to score early?
Supra du Quebec have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.