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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cavalry FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Atlético Ottawa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cavalry FC beat Atlético Ottawa 3-1 at ATCO Field, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.77 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.29 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cavalry FC beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.98 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.04 / defence 0.94, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 47% | Draw 27% | Atlético Ottawa 26%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 53%, Atlético Ottawa 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cavalry FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cavalry FC 1.70 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cavalry FC win broke the near-deadlock. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights