Cavalry FC 3-1 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Cavalry FC at 47%, yet in-form Atlético Ottawa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Atlético Ottawa make the trip to ATCO Field to face Cavalry FC in Canadian Premier League (Group Stage). The match kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 21:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Cavalry FC have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Cavalry FC at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Cavalry FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Atlético Ottawa (all games): 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 — 2.20 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Atlético Ottawa's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Atlético Ottawa are 0.70 PPG clear of Cavalry FC over their recent games (2.20 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

The head-to-head sample leans to Atlético Ottawa, who have 4 wins from 6 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2025, ended Cavalry FC 1–2 Atlético Ottawa — a Atlético Ottawa win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Atlético Ottawa have won 4 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading Data

Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

Atlético Ottawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 62% versus Atlético Ottawa 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 53% | Atlético Ottawa 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.77 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.038 / defence 0.977 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.038 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.809 / away 1.268. Data: built from Cavalry FC's last 28 games and Atlético Ottawa's last 28. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 47% | Draw 27% | Atlético Ottawa 26%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.12 | Draw 3.73 | Atlético Ottawa 3.84. Cavalry FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.77 / 1.29) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Cavalry FC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Atlético Ottawa (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Cavalry FC's last 10 home games and Atlético Ottawa's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cavalry FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Atlético Ottawa 40% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Cavalry FC 28 games, Atlético Ottawa 28) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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