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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Atlético Ottawa edge out Cavalry FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atlético Ottawa beat Cavalry FC 2-1 at TD Place Stadium, Final, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.91 xG and Cavalry FC 0.91 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 0.99 / defence 0.71 against Cavalry FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.07, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 59% | Draw 26% | Cavalry FC 15%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 51%, Cavalry FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Cavalry FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 1.76 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atlético Ottawa win broke the near-deadlock. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights