Atlético Ottawa 2-1 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atlético Ottawa at 59% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC meet at TD Place Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Final. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 November 2025 at 22:00 UTC.
Form
Atlético Ottawa (all games): 5W 5D 0L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Atlético Ottawa at TD Place Stadium this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at TD Place Stadium.
Cavalry FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cavalry FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Atlético Ottawa, 1 for Cavalry FC and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 3–0 with Atlético Ottawa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Atlético Ottawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atlético Ottawa 56% versus Cavalry FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atlético Ottawa 51% | Cavalry FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 1.91 xG and Cavalry FC 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.991 / defence 0.714 | Cavalry FC attack 1.007 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.267. Atlético Ottawa's defence rating of 0.714 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Atlético Ottawa games / 56 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 59% | Draw 26% | Cavalry FC 15%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | Cavalry FC 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Atlético Ottawa (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atlético Ottawa as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Atlético Ottawa 40% | Cavalry FC 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Final | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 59% | Draw 26% | Cavalry FC 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Atlético Ottawa 1.91 / Cavalry FC 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.991 / def 0.714 | Cavalry FC attack 1.007 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.795 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Cavalry FC xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Atlético Ottawa 2 - 1 Cavalry FC.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC is a Final fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 59% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 15% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC?
Record (6 meetings): Atlético Ottawa 3W | Draws 2 | Cavalry FC 1W.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Cavalry FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Atlético Ottawa's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Cavalry FC's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (1.01x) against Atlético Ottawa's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
59%
1.70
26%
3.88
15%
6.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
2.82
0.91
Cavalry FC xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
6.46
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
15%
6.73
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
2%
43.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 10.4 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 0.91 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Atlético Ottawa have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 27W 23D 9L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Cavalry FC's form line: 27W 21D 11L from 59 games, 1.73 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.76 PPG for Atlético Ottawa against 1.73 for Cavalry FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Atlético Ottawa have posted 1.79 PPG from 29 outings (13W 13D 3L).
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 12W 10D 7L from 29 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.58 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cavalry FC in 61%.
Last 59 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Current Season
Cavalry FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 27W 23D 9L in their last 59 games (1.76 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 27W 21D 11L in their last 59 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or Cavalry FC away?
Atlético Ottawa's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 1.79 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Atlético Ottawa or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atlético Ottawa have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Cavalry FC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won 3-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atlético Ottawa have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Atlético Ottawa
2
Draws
4
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Atlético Ottawa have won 4, Cavalry FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Cavalry FC 3-1 Atlético Ottawa.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atlético Ottawa 62%, Cavalry FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Atlético Ottawa) and 48% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atlético Ottawa play Cavalry FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Atlético Ottawa's games and 59% of Cavalry FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Atlético Ottawa's recent games and 48% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Atlético Ottawa have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atlético Ottawa edge out Cavalry FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa beat Cavalry FC 2-1 at TD Place Stadium, Final, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.91 xG and Cavalry FC 0.91 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 0.99 / defence 0.71 against Cavalry FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.07, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 59% | Draw 26% | Cavalry FC 15%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 51%, Cavalry FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 1.76 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atlético Ottawa win broke the near-deadlock. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.