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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Vitoria edge out Vasco DA Gama 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vitoria beat Vasco DA Gama 2-1 at Barradao, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitoria 1.55 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.82 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitoria attack 0.98 / defence 1.16 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.84 / defence 1.11, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitoria 54% | Draw 27% | Vasco DA Gama 19%, with Vitoria to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitoria 50%, Vasco DA Gama 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitoria's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vitoria 1.24 PPG, Vasco DA Gama 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitoria win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights