🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Vitoria and Sport Recife share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vitoria and Sport Recife finished level at 2-2 at Barradao, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitoria 1.41 xG and Sport Recife 0.51 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sport Recife outscored their 0.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitoria attack 0.87 / defence 0.90 against Sport Recife attack 0.65 / defence 1.30, drawn from 53/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitoria 59% | Draw 27% | Sport Recife 13%, with Vitoria to win its most likely call at 59%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitoria 31%, Sport Recife 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitoria's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Sport Recife's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Vitoria arrived the stronger side — 1.15 PPG against 0.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vitoria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sport Recife (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights