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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 16

Kick-off

Thu 24 Jul 2025

01:30

Venue

Barradao

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Vitoria Win

59%

Vitoria

1.69

27%

Draw

3.66

13%

Sport Recife

7.48

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

20.6%

Home win

Most likely

0 – 0

14.6%

Draw

2 – 0

14.5%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.41

Vitoria xG

Total xG

1.92

0.51

Sport Recife xG

59%
27%
13%
VitoriaDrawSport Recife

1.69

59%

Home win

3.66

27%

Draw

7.48

13%

Away win

Goals Markets

57%

Over 1.5

1.75

43%

Under 1.5

2.33

30%

Over 2.5

3.33

70%

Under 2.5

1.43

13%

Over 3.5

7.69

87%

Under 3.5

1.15

5%

Over 4.5

20.00

95%

Under 4.5

1.05

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

30%

BTTS Yes

3.29

70%

BTTS No

1.44

Clean Sheet

60%

Vitoria

1.67

24%

Sport Recife

4.10

Win to Nil

36%

Vitoria

2.82

3%

Sport Recife

30.70

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 14.6 7.5 1.9 0.3
1 20.6 10.6 2.7 0.5 0.1
2 14.5 7.5 1.9 0.3
3 6.8 3.5 0.9 0.2
4 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.1
5 0.7 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.412
λ Away (xG) 0.513
Total xG 1.925
League avg home goals 1.258
League avg away goals 0.888
Vitoria attack strength 0.866
Vitoria defence strength 0.895
Sport Recife attack strength 0.645
Sport Recife defence strength 1.297
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 53 / 13