🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Santos defy the odds to beat Vitoria 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Santos beat Vitoria 0-1 at Barradao, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitoria 1.47 xG and Santos 0.65 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vitoria fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitoria attack 1.01 / defence 1.16 against Santos attack 0.67 / defence 1.07, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitoria 55% | Draw 31% | Santos 14%, with Vitoria to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Santos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitoria 50%, Santos 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitoria's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Santos's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vitoria 1.24 PPG, Santos 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Santos win broke the near-deadlock. Vitoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Santos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights