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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Vitoria and Palmeiras share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vitoria and Palmeiras finished level at 2-2 at Barradao, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitoria 0.99 xG and Palmeiras 1.19 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Vitoria beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Palmeiras outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitoria attack 0.90 / defence 1.01 against Palmeiras attack 1.26 / defence 0.88, drawn from 55/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitoria 30% | Draw 31% | Palmeiras 40%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitoria 45%, Palmeiras 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitoria's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Palmeiras's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vitoria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palmeiras (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights