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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Vitoria cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mirassol.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vitoria beat Mirassol 2-0 at Barradao, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitoria 1.03 xG and Mirassol 0.80 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Vitoria beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mirassol landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitoria attack 0.74 / defence 0.87 against Mirassol attack 0.92 / defence 0.94, drawn from 73/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitoria 40% | Draw 32% | Mirassol 28%, with Vitoria to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitoria 40%, Mirassol 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitoria's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.

Mirassol's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Vitoria winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vitoria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Mirassol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights