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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Vitoria and Juventude share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Barradao, Regular Season - 20, as Vitoria and Juventude drew 2-2 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitoria 2.16 xG and Juventude 0.73 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Juventude outscored their 0.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitoria attack 0.98 / defence 1.05 against Juventude attack 0.68 / defence 1.72, drawn from 57/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitoria 70% | Draw 18% | Juventude 11%, with Vitoria to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitoria 46%, Juventude 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitoria's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Juventude's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vitoria 1.16 PPG, Juventude 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vitoria (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Juventude (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights