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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Vitoria and Gremio share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vitoria and Gremio finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Manoel Barradas, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitoria 1.13 xG and Gremio 1.04 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitoria attack 0.89 / defence 1.04 against Gremio attack 0.97 / defence 0.94, drawn from 36/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitoria 36% | Draw 33% | Gremio 32%, with Vitoria to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitoria 50%, Gremio 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitoria's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Gremio's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vitoria 1.25 PPG, Gremio 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights