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Prediction vindicated as Vitoria edge out Fortaleza EC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vitoria beat Fortaleza EC 2-1 at Barradao, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitoria 1.34 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.09 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitoria attack 0.98 / defence 1.10 against Fortaleza EC attack 1.04 / defence 1.00, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitoria 40% | Draw 32% | Fortaleza EC 28%, with Vitoria to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitoria 50%, Fortaleza EC 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitoria's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Fortaleza EC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Fortaleza EC arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Vitoria winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights